MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
As we just heard, President Trump is focusing on security and diplomacy during his trip to the Middle East, and big business deals underpin both. He is looking to lock in massive investment deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Hussein Ibish is with us now to give us his take on this. He's an authority on Gulf State politics. He's a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Mr. Ibish, thank you so much for joining us.
HUSSEIN IBISH: It's a pleasure. Thank you.
MARTIN: So let me start with something that's gotten a lot of attention in Washington already. The Trump administration is in talks with the Qatari government about accepting a luxury Boeing 747 airplane that could temporarily serve as Air Force One. This, according to a Senior White House official. What does this offer of the plane tell us about how Gulf leaders plan to handle their relationship with this president, and do they want something in return?
IBISH: Yeah. I mean, I think what they want is to lock in a strong relationship with Washington. And in the current administration, that is personalized. It means a strong relationship with Mr. Trump - as a human being, as Big Daddy, as the tribal chieftain of the United States, not just kind of bilateral diplomatic relations, trade relations of the normal kind, but personalized relations with the president. Now, this comes easily to Gulf countries which are led by monarchs and emirs and kings and what have you. For them, the kind of patrimonial, personalized rule of Donald Trump is familiar. And also, they have understood him. They've been dealing with him for many, many years - over 10 years as a president, a would-be president. And they've come to understand him and what he wants, you know, the big dollar signs, both for himself and for the U.S.
MARTIN: So let's talk about these investment pledges.
IBISH: Yeah.
MARTIN: Trump says the Saudis - just the Saudis, for example, are pledging up to a trillion dollars in U.S. investment. Is that real?
IBISH: No. But there - it is serious that the Saudis do want to invest in the United States. They also want to give the president something to talk about. And they understood, especially by watching his behavior in his first major diplomatic trip in the last administration - the first Trump administration back in 2017 - when he went to Saudi Arabia and made a big deal out of putting together a list of hypothetical contracts, real contracts and also some deals that were struck by President Obama without giving him any credit and came up with the largest possible figure and touted it around the United States. He's going to do that again.
MARTIN: But is there a quid pro quo here? That's, I guess, one of the other questions I have.
IBISH: Yeah.
MARTIN: Is there a quid pro quo here, and what might that be?
IBISH: Yeah. There is, which is a strong relationship with Washington, especially Defense Relations. They really rely on the United States for their security, and that hasn't changed.
MARTIN: So I think this relates to the first question I asked you, this kind of transactional diplomacy.
IBISH: Yeah.
MARTIN: Is this business as usual, I guess, for the Gulf?
IBISH: Well, sort of - not really, because if you looked at the Biden administration, for example, there's very little thought about what you could do personally for Joe Biden or how you could give Joe Biden the biggest possible figure, whether it's fanciful or real. I think there was a lot of - for example, the Saudis were successful - and the Americans, both - in crafting a strategic alignment and mutual defense agreement that was satisfactory to both. The problem is they couldn't get it through because it relied on Saudi normalization with Israel to be ratified in the Senate. And then that wasn't going to happen...
MARTIN: Yeah.
IBISH: ...If Israel wasn't going to be in any way responsive to giving something for the Palestinians, so it didn't happen. But in this case, it's really about, what have you done for me lately?
MARTIN: OK.
IBISH: And what can you do for me personally?
MARTIN: I only have about 45 seconds left, so I do want to ask about this. Trump is skipping a stop in Israel...
IBISH: Yeah.
MARTIN: ...Despite the ongoing war in Gaza. Do you see a message being sent in that decision - being sent either to the Israeli leadership or to the Gulf States or both? Is there a message there in that?
IBISH: Yeah. I mean, to some extent, you know. I wouldn't overstate it, but for sure, the relations with - between Trump and Israel are strained, both because the Gaza War continues and Israel is talking about completely reoccupying Gaza and hoarding all of its people into a tiny enclave in the south and really ramping up the death and devastation there, but also, really, because the Trump administration is going forward with nuclear talks with Iran. Israel is very opposed to that, but he's keen on a deal, and that has strained relations even more.
MARTIN: That is Hussein Ibish. He's a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Mr. Ibish, thank you so much for sharing these insights with us.
IBISH: You're so welcome. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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