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2024 elections are the first test of Montana’s new legislative districts

State legislative districts for 2024-2032
State legislative districts for 2024-2032

Montanans had to wait years to elect leaders in new legislative districts after the 2020 count. That’s because the state Constitution requires that the biennial Legislature gets a say in the process.

“We’re the only state that has been this delayed in seeing what the new districts will look like, so it will be fascinating,” said Dan Stusek.

Stusek was one of the Republican appointees to the Montana Districting and Apportionment Commission. He says most of the new districts have a heavier party lean than in the past.

“I think we’ll see a reduction in competitive districts around Montana. So when we talk about competitive districts, those are located in a few key stops rather than sprinkled across the map, as they had been in previous districts, previous iterations of the map,” he said.

Republicans voted against the new map, saying it unduly supports Democrats. The commission chair cast a tie-breaking vote to pass the district map.

Republicans held a supermajority in the statehouse under the prior map and Democrats attributed that consolidation of power to disproportionate districts.

Scott McNeil is director of the Montana Democratic legislative campaign committee. He said a Republican supermajority is not representative of Montana.

“No one would agree that Montana is that imbalanced politically. So I think these districts reflect more of the political dynamics of Montana. I think it requires candidates in a lot of districts to represent a lot of varying interest,” said McNeil.

When the new maps were drawn, Democrats at the time said they would likely flip 10 seats from red to blue between the House and Senate. But that projection was made using years-old data, and Montana's population has grown at one of the fastest rates in the country.

McNeil says it’s unclear what impact new residents will have. He says political polarization is the bigger hurdle for Montana Democrats.

“The issue isn’t necessarily new residents. It’s, you know, trying to convince voters to split their tickets,” he said.

Both parties agree on where the most competitive legislative races are this cycle.

Great Falls was once a Democratic stronghold, but Republicans flipped a few seats there in 2022. Newly drawn districts have resulted in competitive races for open seats in the heart of the city. Former County Commissioner and Democrat Jane Weber faces Republican Hannah Trebas for House District 19. Republican Melissa Nikolakakos is running against Democratic former Clerk and Recorder Rina Fontana Moore for House District 20.

Both Trebas and Nikolakakos are married to current Republican state senators.

McNeil said Democrats are confident in the candidates they recruited to take back some ground.

“In terms of candidate quality, to get that overperformance you need those candidates with the name brand, the name ID, especially in a cycle with a massive Senate race sucking up a lot of oxygen,” said McNeil.

Bozeman has slowly turned blue over the last few decades, but there is still political variation in Gallatin County. House District 60 is politically competitive because it includes south Bozeman, Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Democratic attorney Alannah Griffith faces Republican Jerry Johnson, a former mayor of West Yellowstone.

A tight race is also underway for Senate District 21. It covers part of Billings, Hardin and the Crow and Northern Cheyenne Reservations. The seat has long been held by Northern Cheyenne Republican Sen. Jason Small, but he’s terming out of office. Democratic Rep. Sharon Stewart-Peregoy faces Republican Gayle Lammers, a longtime Hardin business owner.

Stusek says he’s interested to see if Republicans can make inroads in urban districts, even though it seems unlikely.

“Generally speaking, rural red districts are getting more red. Districts in the cities, large areas of Bozeman, Missoula and even Helena, to a lesser degree, were kind of buttoned up to make pretty blue,” Stusek said.

Montana Free Press has published a comprehensive guide on all legislative candidates running for office. Voters can also find candidate information in the Secretary of State’s voter guide.

Regardless of who wins, all legislators will gather in Helena shortly after the election in November for orientation and to elect new party leaders.

The Legislature convenes January 6.

Copyright 2024 Montana Public Radio

Shaylee is a UM Journalism School student. She reports and helps produce Montana Evening News on MTPR.